The year 2020 will be remembered for three things:  COVID-19, Black Lives Matter and the presidential election.  At this time, the first event we know much about, the last, very little.  I turn my attention to the relations that BLM is focused upon – inequality and unfair treatment of African-Americans in the USA.

I happened upon a video of James Baldwin debating William F Buckley in 1965 at the Cambridge Union in England. The debate club at Cambridge began with two students debating then differed to their distinguished guests.  Britain, like many other countries, has a more accepting relationship with its black citizens than in the US.

Baldwin delivers an impassioned speech about conditions for black people living in the US 102 years after the signing of the Emancipation Proclamation in 1863.  Afterward, he received the first ever standing ovation in the history of the Union.  Next up was Buckley, who soaks his speech with highfalutin rhetoric and veiled insults that, while acknowledging the struggles black people have in America, deflects with statements such as “the problem in Mississippi is not that too few negros can vote, but that too many whites can vote.”

Has the American Dream been Achieved at the Expense of the American Negro?  In the end, the Cambridge Union members voted 544 for and 164 against the premise of the debate:

The struggle continues.  It is the case in 2020 that members of the GOP are still trying to find ways to reduce the vote in targeted communities, especially those of color.  While being reprehensible, this is understandable – they know that the more people allowed to vote, the greater the chance that their political adversaries will win office.

Watch the segment here:  https://youtu.be/5Tek9h3a5wQ

 

 

When was the last time you said to a friend ‘I’m starving…’?
Do we even know what starving feels like? I don’t and I don’t think anyone I know does either. But every day there are over 100 million people worldwide that are beyond food insecure – they’re on the verge of starving. Now, according to the UN’s World Food Program, an additional 130 million more humans could be pushed to the brink of starvation by the end of 2020 due to the COVID19 pandemic.

This should be unacceptable to everyone yet not enough attention is being paid to this situation. In Ventura County, where I live, estimates are that 75,000 people go to bed each night food insecure. And now we’re seeing lines of cars miles long across America waiting for a box of food from their local food bank.

In Abraham Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs pyramid, food and shelter are top priorities. Much has been said about the lack of housing in many parts of the country but not enough is being said about the lack of food.  Both here, there and everywhere.

There’s a good piece about the worldwide situation in today’s New York Times. We should address this issue before it’s too late. We’re getting close that that point now.

Read the piece here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/world/africa/coronavirus-hunger-crisis.html?searchResultPosition=3

Saw Under the Silver Lake, a recent and strange film last night that included an element of railroad hobo signs as a form of communication.  An example of such is /// which means that it’s not safe here.  So I did a lookup and found that there’s a whole vocabulary of signals that are only known to those who know.  What’s interesting is that most would be difficult to read without a guide and all relate to the life of those who clandestinely travel and live off the land in human terms.  A sample of them is below:

We’re now into month four of the novel coronavirus, also known as COVID19 with the number of confirmed cases approaching 414,179 and deaths of 18,440 worldwide.  It is a highly infectious disease which causes pneumonia in roughly 13% of those infected and a death rate of 2-3%.

According to the New England Journal of Medicine, the virus was first announced to the world on December 31, 2019 as a cluster of pneumonia in people associated with the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, Hubei Province, the spread began its journey to other locations.  As of January 30, 2020, a total of 9,976 cases had been reported in at least 21 countries,⁷ 

On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China.

By January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported 7,718 cases reported worldwide.  By February 15, the number of confirmed cases rose to 50,580 with 1,526 deaths (all but two were in China).  Two weeks later on March 1, those numbers had jumped to 87,137 and 3,977.  Then, on March 15, the numbers had expanded to 153, 517 infected with 5,735 deaths.  Clearly, the growth is exponential.  In the past ten days, the number infected has tripled and the number of deaths has quadrupled.  This is what they call a pandemic.

But it’s not the first and history tells us that even in the recent past, there have been such events that dwarf what we’ve seen with COVID19 so far.

Do you remember the Hong Kong Flu (influenza H3N2)of 1968?  Most Americans don’t, yet it killed an estimated 1 million people worldwide and an estimated 100,000 people in the United States, according to the WHO.  That pandemic started in Hong Kong in September, 1968 and lasted at least three years, receding and advancing – the virus returned the following years: in late 1969 and early 1970, and in 1972.

The point is that these events – pandemics – spread exponentially and last a long time.  The notion that this can be eradicated in 3 months is false, no matter how much science has advanced.  These events occur with some regularity, so it’s best to plan for them lest we repeat the same mistakes both now and in the future.  For if we don’t, we’ll all be contestants on Groucho Marx’s famous TV show, You Bet your Life.

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”  George Santayana

Back in the analog days, SLR meant single lens reflex. It’s a term for cameras, which is somewhat outdated in this phone-is-my-camera world. Now SLR means Sea-Level Rise and yet another report published this week tells of what’s to come for California in the future. And it’s not pretty.

In his report to the California Legislature, Gabriel Petek of California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office spells out what’s likely to happen in the near future and beyond.  The opening to the executive summary is straightforward:

[It’s] Important for Coastal Communities to Begin Preparing for Sea-Level Rise (SLR) California Faces the Threat of Extensive and Expensive SLR Impacts. California’s coast could experience SLR ranging from about half of 1 foot by 2030 up to about 7 feet by 2100. Periodic events like storms and high tides will produce even higher water levels and increase the risk of flooding. Rising seas will also erode coastal cliffs, dunes, and beaches which will affect shorefront structures and recreation.

It goes on to say that $150 billion worth of property could be damaged/destroyed during the next 80 years.    While many people think of climate change as only an environmental/health/wildlife issue, we must also look at it in terms of its economic impact.  Perhaps that will get the attention of more people and lawmakers, who often say that this is a hoax or not as bad as reported.  Many of those in Congress care little about the ‘coastal elites’ and their problems, but eventually this will become so expensive to local, state and federal coffers that they too will be forced to act.  But by then, it may be too far gone.

Think about the cost of fighting fires, then add the cost of flooding, tornadoes, and other natural disasters that are becoming worse as Earth battles the effects of climate change.  These add up quickly and frankly, nobody knows the cost as things get worse to entire cities, regions, states (think Florida).  We’re spending billions now and it is virtually guaranteed to get worse.

Read the report here and think about our collective future:  https://lao.ca.gov/reports/2019/4121/coastal-adaptation-121019.pdf

An admission: I like beer. Have for a long time. So much so that I turned 21 at the Heineken Brewery in Amsterdam. Back then, it was the only premium beer on the American market (wasn’t great then, and hasn’t changed a stitch since). But over the past three decades, small craft brews have made serious inroads into the mainstream market. Tina & I visited the Red Hook brewery in Seattle WA in the 1980s. aI could tell then that something was coming.  So did Anheiser Busch, who invested in Red Hook, among the first major investments into small craft beer.  And so it was that hundreds of small breweries across North America popped up and began to take market share from the bigs:  AB, Miller/Coors, etc…

But like all things, les bon moments se terminent and one noticeable example is Ballast Point Brewing & Spirits.  Constellation purchased the brand in 2015 for close to $1Billion, in part due to the supposition that BP’s unique Sculpin grapefruit IPA’s sales would take over the world.  Delicious it was, take over the world it did not.

Now four years later, Constellation has had its fill of the brand and so has announced that it is selling Ballast Point for somewhere in the $100-$200M range, making it a 80-90% discount from the purchase price just 4 years ago.  It’s a good brand with nice tap rooms and could turn out to be a good investment.  Only time will tell.

Read the SD Union Tribune’s story about this pay here:  https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/entertainment/beer/story/2019-12-08/ballast-points-rise-fall-and-re-sale-unpacking-craft-beers-most-baffling-deal

The book Seven brief Lessons on Physics by Carlo Rovelli, while being short on pages is as big as the universe on things to contemplate.  Touching on topics such as Einstein’s Theory of Relativity, Quarks, Black Holes and Quantum Mechanics, it’s a good primer for those of us who are not post-grad scientists.  And it makes one think deeply.

One section describes how large the universe is as far as we now know.  Remember, humans believed that the Earth was flat and we were the center of the universe just a few hundred years ago.

Here’s an excerpt that gives you an idea of what he’s talking about:  “The illustration [shown above] is not a drawing;  it’s a photograph taken by the Hubble telescope in orbit, showing a deeper image of the sky than any seen previously with the most powerful of our telescopes; seen with the naked eye, it would be a minute piece of extremely black sky.  Through the Hubble, a dusting of vastly distant dots appear.  Each blank dot in the image is a galaxy containing a hundred billion suns similar to ours.  In the past few years it has been observed that the majority of these suns are orbited by planets.  There are therefore in the universe thousands of billions of billions of billions of planets such as Earth.  And in every direction in which we look, this is what appears.”

That is not a typo (thousands of billions of billions of billions) but it is a very large number.  What are the chances that there are other planets like ours that could sustain carbon based lifeforms?  Don’t bet against it…

Robert Hunter, longtime lyricist for the Grateful Dead, died earlier this week at the age of 78. Those who listened carefully to the songs of this band know that an integral part of the experience was the words, most of which were the creation of Hunter, born Robert Burns, in Arroyo Grande, CA and reportedly the great, great grandson of Scottish poet Robert Burns, The National Bard of Scotland.

Hunter’s lyrics were sweet, poignant and moving, sung by a band that enunciated them well enough that thousands of devotees could sing every last word to a staggering number of songs decades later.

One of my favorites is Box of Rain, a song written by Phil Lesh, the lost voice of the Dead, who had the music and phrasing for the piece down, but without words. Along came Hunter to fill in the gap, and with that, Lesh had the song he raced to sing to his own dying father. You can’t make this kind of stuff up.

Here’s Box Of Rain:

Look out of any window
Any morning, any evening, any day
Maybe the sun is shining
Birds are winging or
Rain is falling from a heavy sky,
What do you want me to do,
To do for you to see you through?
For this is all a dream we dreamed
One afternoon long ago
Walk out of any doorway
Feel your way, feel your way
Like the day before
Maybe you’ll find direction
Around some corner
Where it’s been waiting to meet you,
What do you want me to do,
To watch for you while you’re sleeping?
Well please don’t be surprised
When you find me dreaming too Look into any eyes
You find by you, you can see
Clear through to another day
Maybe been seen before
Through other eyes on other days
While going home,
What do you want me to do,
To do for you to see you through?
It’s all a dream we dreamed
One afternoon long ago Walk into splintered sunlight
Inch your way through dead dreams
To another land
Maybe you’re tired and broken
Your tongue is twisted
With words half spoken
And thoughts unclear
What do you want me to do
To do for you to see you through
A box of rain will ease the pain
And love will see you through Just a box of rain,
Wind and water,
Believe it if you need it,
If you don’t just pass it on
Sun and shower,
Wind and rain,
In and out the window
Like a moth before a flameAnd it’s just a box of rain
I don’t know who put it there
Believe it if you need it
Or leave it if you dare
And it’s just a box of rain
Or a ribbon for your hair
Such a long long time to be gone
And a short time to be there

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/robert-hunter-grateful-dead-dead-889788/

 

Looking down from Olmsted Point

In reading Ansel Adams’ book Yosemite and the Sierra Nevada (1948), a collection of writings by Naturalist John Muir accompanied by roughly sixty five lesser known black & white photographs of Yosemite taken by Adams, I am struck by Muir’s analogies dating back to the 19th century.  One in particular got me thinking, taken from The Snow and The Glaciers (1894):

It is hard without long and loving study to realize the magnitude of the work done on these mountains during the last glacial period by glaciers, which are only streams of closely compacted snow crystals.  Careful study of the phenomena presented goes to show that the pre-glacial condition of the range was comparatively simple:  One vast wave of stone in which a thousand mountains, domes, canyons, ridges, etc… lay concealed  And in the development of these Nature chose for a tool, not the earthquake or lightening to rend and split asunder, but the tender snow flowers noiselessly falling through unnumbered centuries, the offspring of the sun and sea.  Laboring harmoniously in united strength, they crushed and ground and wore away the rocks in their march, making vast beds of soil, and at the same time developed and fashioned the landscapes into the delightful variety of hill and dale and lordly mountain that mortals call beauty.

It is true that the snow collected over time hardens into glaciers, which are mighty enough to carve and mold the hardest stone.  Yet in today’s world, the term snowflake is used as a derision to those who are not hardened to the ways of the present.  What is lost is that with quantity, even elements that appear soft can prevail.  Let’s take water, which by most accounts is not a hard substance.  Yet when applied in great quantities, can literally move heaven and earth.  Witness the Grand Canyon, a mile in depth carved from centuries of Colorado River water wearing down stone, grain by grain.  Or with focus a water jet can cut through metal.  There are two sides to every story.

See the power of a water jet here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMSGHJ8GJ1A

 

 

Santa Monica Freeway circa 1965

According to estimates from California’s Department of Finance this week, the population of California was 39,927,315 as of January 1. This number is likely low due to the people living in CA that are illegal residents. Still, at the current growth rate of .47% in 2018 (the slowest in state history), the number should exceed the 40 million mark sometime this summer.  California needs only to add another 72,600 people to hit the 40 M mark. And while the change in population has to do with births, deaths and migration, it’s interesting to note that although August is the month with the highest birthrate, all months are close,

When I moved here in 1969, the population was approximately 19,710,000 or roughly half of what it is now. During that fifty year period, much has changed, some of it not for the better  If you watch movies from the 60s or 70s, you can see that freeway traffic in LA was very light compared to today.  Saturday morning light it seems.

Back then, the freeway system expanded throughout the Golden State and made travel faster and safer.  Over the years, increases in population and car ownership has choked out interstates and main thoroughfares to the point of gridlock.  Now it takes patience and time to make it through the system to and from work, etc…

In the long run, we need to figure out how people can move about without all the stress and waste of time that our current system offers commuters.  Ride sharing and alternatives to car ownership (such as Uber and Lyft) put fewer cars on the road and more people in each car.  It’s a start but not the ultimate best practice…