Sunday is a work day for FDIC workers at Affinity

Affinity Bank was seized by regulators on Friday, ending a chapter of local banking that had been waning for several months.  On Sunday, FDIC  employees were seen in Affinity’s conference room, reviewing files and counting the money. 

They had struck a deal with San Diego based Pacific Western Bank to take over Affinity’s ten branches and buy nearly $1 billion in assets.  The cost of this meltdown to taxpayers is an estimated $254 million, according the regulators.

Affinity has been a good community partner, generously giving to various non-profits in Ventura County.  In an area already sparse in corporate donors, this will likely mean fewer dollars being parsed out to worthy causes here in the future.

But the fact remains that the banking fiasco, where one of the most conservative of industries turned into one of the most aggressive and careless when it came to lending money, is still not over…

Recently, a number of economists have said that the recession is over. In a technical sense, this may be true.  But maybe not.   The current definition of Recession is that GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth is negative for a period of two or more consecutive quarters.  Under this measure, we’re there and have been for four consecutive quarters.

Beginning in Q3 of 2008, we have seen GDP growth of -2.7%, -5.4%,
-6.4% and -1% in Q2, 2009.  That last number represents a slowing in the decline of GNP but the real question is how will Q3 fair vs. the same period of 2008.   While I remain optimistic, I wonder what August/September results bring.

On the home mortgage front, delinquencies are at a record 9.24% of mortgages, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That represents more than 4 million of the 45 million borrowers covered by the report. Add to that the 4.3% of all the mortgages are in the foreclosure stage and you get over 13% during the quarter. That means 13% of all home loans are late or in foreclosure.   Locally, I know a few people who are seriously worried about losing their homes.

Consumer spending is down and so is consumer confidence. After three months of gains, consumer confidence fell further in July, following June’s downward tilt.  I believe that’s due to reality setting in after a flurry of positive signals brought on by the temporary effects of the stimulus investments. Consumer confidence is an important stat as consumer spending is reported to account for roughly 2/3 of the GDP.

On the jobs front, there’s little sign that more job opportunities are on the way.  And people feel it.  The percentage of consumers expecting more jobs in the months ahead decreased to 15.0 percent from 17.5 percent, according to The Conference Board. And the proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes declined to 9.5 percent from 10.1 percent, they said.

All this adds up to nobody knowing what the future holds. I’m hearing that foreign markets are pulling out of their recessions. While we’d like to be in the same boat, we need to be careful not to fool ourselves.

The reason that statistics are worse than damned lies is because statistics can seem so authoritative. That’s why I don’t really trust economists because so many of them are not correct.  For if they were, they’d be rich, acting upon their forecasts before others in the business world.

But let’s not get into chaos theory…

described as "a psychologically loaded gun which went off"

This week’s cover story of the Reporter is an interview with Ivor Davis, who penned the first book about the Tate-La Bianca murders in Los Angeles, which happened forty years from this weekend, August 8/9 1969. The book, Five To Die, was used in the prosecution of Charles Manson and several of his followers for murder starting in 1970. Fortunately, the prosecution was successful and all convicted have been incarcerated ever since. Until now.

Ivor then covered the trial for the foreign press. It was a long affair, full of horror, and graphic detail of sex, drugs and rock and roll. I was there, if for just one day.

My friend Brian’s dad, Dr. Keith Ditman, was a an expert witness for the prosecution. His area of expertise – the effects of LSD, of which there was apparently A LOT OF around the old Spahn Ranch on Santa Susana Ranch Road in Chatsworth, where the family lived during this time.

From what I remember (I was all of twelve at the time) my friend Brian and I stood in line to get into the courtroom. I was asked to remove my Frye boots to ensure I wasn’t carrying anything dangerous. Then we walked into the courtroom and found seats on the isle. I sat next to an sketch artist, who would later show me just how fast someone can draw a scene in detail. Maybe that’s why I favor line drawings of subjects to accompany interviews…

When the Manson girls walked in, they seemed to immediately spot my friend Brian, with his long straight blond hair. They waved, we waved back, then they turned around and sat down. We thought they were cute, not knowing how truly destructive they had been. Then Charlie followed, was seated and the show began. Little else is memorable to me other than when Manson, iritated at what the judge was saying, jumped up, yelled at the man in black and was told to sit down and be quite. He wouldn’t. Finally, the judge had had enough and asked the bailiff to remove the defendant, who I then remember seeing in a small black & white monitor screen from the holding cell he was remanded to.

Other than that, I remember other Manson followers (women) sitting outside the courtroom on a street corner, either praying or singing. By that point in the psycho-drama, they had shaved their heads, not unlike the Hare Krisnas that took over Westwood that same decade.

The chances of Ivor and I being in that courtroom on the same day are better than not. Same place, different time…

Of late I’ve been thinking on the luxury of quiet.  One of the joys of being in Ventura is that it is the most quiet place I’ve lived, to awaken.  Other than the occassional car, cow on the hill or pack of coyotes howling in the night, it’s still enough to hear yourself breathe.

A few weeks back, we took a trip up to the Sierra.  It’s my usual mode to get busy clearing brush at George & Dinny’s cabin lot, waiting for the local deer to meander by.  They seldom fail to deliver.  And when they do, I quietly talk to them.  They startle only when you stare at them or move too quickly. But they never reply.  Occassioanlly I wonder what life would be like without sounding out.  Seems impossible doesn’t it?

During the trip we revisit the Mariposa Grove, a collection of sequoia trees on the southside of Yosemite.  Within this stand of giants are trees up to 2,400 years old, weighing dozens of tons and have lived out their lives in complete silence.  In weather one hundred degrees or freezing cold, there they stand.  Through fires and droughts, driving winds or witness to their brothers being cut down, there they stand.

From the eighteen hundreds  to the middle of the last centry, these groves were occassionally timbered for what man thought was good reason.  Turns out the wood is brittle and not much use for building and such.

Now comes news that declining snowpacks in the Sierra may threaten these noble giants.  If you know about big trees, then you know that their intake of water is incredible – hundreds of gallons each day, which is in part exhaled into the atmosphere throught their leaves, along with oxygen.  It’s a shame to think that these trees, which sprouted their first roots in the time of the last great Egyptian pharaonic epoch and have survived numerous hardships during their several Millennia, may not be with us in a hundred years.

I wonder what they would say about that?

L.A. Times Columnist Steve Lopez

L.A. Times Columnist Steve Lopez was in town Friday to speak to a group of journalists attending a national columnist’s convention.  Lopez, who has written for the Times for years and who returned to California after making his mark at the Philadelphia Enquirer, is notable for taking on the powerful and for championing the rights and lives of the less fortunate.

Of late, he’s been thrust into the spotlight for his work leading up to the recent film The Soloist, starring Jamie Foxx and Robert Downey Jr.  The film, about a brilliant musician who earned a scholarship to Julliard only to fall into the grasp of mental illness which forced him into the streets, started out as a column for Lopez.  That column turned into thirty dispatches on the life and times of Mr. Ayers.  Read some if it here http://www.latimes.com/la-me-lopez-skidrow-nathaniel-series,0,2823028.special

I was there to see what makes a person like Lopez tick.  After years of writing essentially the same thing, some columnists run out of gas.  Steve Lopez is not that sort as he understands a basic tenant of finding good stories – go out and look for them.

After a longcut description of some of his travels (Iraq, Michael Jackson, etc…) he got to the meat of what attendees wanted to hear:  what is the future of newspapers.  He relayed a story of how he and his editor were divying up their Hollywood Bowl tickets one afternoon when Times publisher Eddy Hartenstein walks by to chat about what stories the writer is working on.  Quickly hiding the tickets, Lopez realizes that the best defense is a good offense, and offers up a question of his own – where is the newspaper business headed?

Hartenstein asks for a sheet of paper to visually show them the answer.  He then proceeds to fold the sheet into a trifold, not unlike many brochures.  “THIS IS THE FUTURE!” exclaims the publisher, baffling both editor and journlist Lopez.  He then goes on to explain that there is work on a hand held, Kindle type of computer terminal that will present the newspaper of the future in 8.5″ x 11″ fashion.  The advantage will be that news pages can be updated on the fly and the portability is better than a laptop, more efficient than a printed page and more readable than a PDA.  The idea is to provide subscribers with this new device free of charge with their paid one year subscription.  It may be three years away and we’ll need to buy millions of these to make the expense worthwhile, relayed Hartenstein, who then explained that Tribune Company,  owners of the L.A. Times among various other media outlets, is in talks with other major daily newspaper groups to discuss banding together on this idea.

Paul Bowers, the Society’s student award winner in attendance at the luncheon, accepted his award and made the following remark  “My generation is overrated.  We have 100 ways of communicating but too often don’t anything to say.” 

As for Lopez and his thoughts on the future of journalism in print, he chose to repeat his friend and fellow N.Y. Times columnist David Carr’s comment  “I don’t know what we’re going to do about the future but I’m going to keep shooting until I’m out of bullets.”

Colbie Caillat played W2O on Sunday, June 8

Yesterday, after attending the always enjoyable Casa Pacifica Angels Wine and Food Festival at Cal State Sushi (CSUCI), Tina and I went down to W2O for a private party.  A hundred people jammed the rooftop lounge to watch the Lakers take a 2-0 advantage over the Magic and to hear the twenty-three year old and her band make music.  Colbie, who hails from T.O,  is famous for having millions of plays on MySpace and selling just as many units of her debut album. 

Her sophomore effort, due out soon, is a nice mix of rock and singer songwriter ballads. And she’s easy on the eyes to boot (as they say).  Read about her in the January issue of VENTANA  Monthly here:  http://ventanamonthly.com/issue.php?IssueNum=20

Ray and me at his home June 2, 2009

I knew that Ray Bradbury was coming up to Ventura later this month to help in the effort to save H.P. Wright Library.  So when Michael O’Kelly asked me if I wanted to pay a visit to Ray this afternoon and talk with him about life, the galaxy and the importance of libraries, I said yes.

The importance of a man like Ray is well known, but not to all.  over a career that spans more than seventy years, he has written fifty books, over 600 short stories, television series, radio plays and more.  He still writes every day.  “Do what you love and love what you do” says he. 

On our way back home, we stopped in Malibu for some refreshment, where we encountered young adults who think they have heard of one of his books, but don’t know the man or body of word that he is responsible for.  Trying to be helpful, we fill in the blanks.

We need thinkers like Ray Bradbury, and we need libraries.

Pedro Nava pitching for California AG

Yesterday I went to the annual Spring Fling and Candidate’s Forum sponsored by the VC Democratic Party.  Entitled Meet California’s Future Attorney General, the event was attended by three candidates for the 2010 AG race as well as local politicos.  Pedro Nava, Ted Lieu and Alberto Torrico each spoke about their past, experience and hopes for the future if they were to be elected.  All three were good:  Nava, the local boy who got his justice experience in Fresno, Lieu, a Georgetown graduate who grew up in Torrance and finally Torrico, the current Assembly Majority Leader.

Of the three, I was most impressed with Alberto Torrico, who told a story of how he fought for justice in his legal past.  “I’ve been thinking about the last four words of our Pledge of Allegiance lately” he said “And Liberty For All means a lot to me…”

Two candidates I would like to have seen but did not attend were LA City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo and Kamala Harris…

Nobody’s perfect.  When Kenny Loggins stepped up to the microphone Friday night at Riviera Bistro in Ventura, he was doing what so many entertainers do on their ‘off night’.  He was sitting in with the house band, playing old standards that everybody knows, but not everybody knows well enough to sing.  And Kenny was one of latter.  But he still has a great voice, was in a good mood and added a little sizzle to the evening in a small intimate setting. 

This was the second consecutive night of star sighting in the area – the night before, Michael McDonald from the Doobie Brothers sat in at W2O on top of the Watermark restaurant on Main Street. Some may think talent such as Loggins and McDonald are historic notes from the past.  But there can be no doubt that these guys, who have sold millions of records, are pop royalty. And they also wrote the hit song ‘This is it” together.

In the introduction to a soon to be published book by my friend Ken McAlpine, he explains the thinking that passed through his mind which led him to write Islands Apart, (A Year on the Edge of Civilization).  He describes spending time in his yard after sundown, looking at the stars and feeling that he is “…missing something.  I doubt that I am alone.  Almost every day I encounter people who, like me, do not feel empowered by these abundant times.”

Ken cites Tennyson and the actions of Thoreau.  But more importantly, he shares a feeling that many of us feel but may not be able to describe.  Or are too distracted or shallow of thought to explore ourselves.

About this busy world we live in he says “Some are mildly unsettled; others near to drowning.”

Wrote Tennyson, “The ghost in man and the ghost that was once man are calling to each other in a dawn stranger than the earth has ever seen.”

He tells of his thoughts when there is no distraction, no noise.  It’s a pattern of his – an earlier book Off Season took Ken on a trip along the eastern seaboard during the winter, in a counter intuitive northbound route, alone.

It’s through these independent crusades that Ken does his best thinking, perhaps through the lens of loneliness, away from his family and friends.  The new book is a journey to the islands without escort, solo. 

Perhaps we would be better off if more people would make the time to explore themselves and the world around them without distraction, a quite contemplative examination that might lead to better thinking and relationships among us.

It’s a wonderful introduction to a book that takes McAlpine to the barely occupied Channel Islands right off the coast of Ventura. 

As Ghandi said:  “There is more to life than to increase its speed.”

I can’t wait to read it.